Commodities Analysis & Opinion
Gold Consolidates — Will It Retest $2951 or Slide Below $2882?
Gold
- Gold (XAU/USD) is probably forming a descending channel, but it is too early to know at this stage of course.
- Last week, we traded in a sideways consolidation exactly as predicted.
- Two weeks ago, I warned that we are unlikely to reach $3000 at this stage.
- It is likely that we must wait several days ( and probably even weeks) for clarification of the new pattern or trend, as stated at the start of last week.
- Currently, the only strategy that can work is scalping short-term support at 2895/91 — buy here with stop below 2884.
Targets: 2905 and 2915 - And scalp resistance at 2925/30 — shorts need stops above 2935
Targets: 2905, 2915 - Watch the 3-day range of 2893/91 2926/30.
- A break below 2882/81 is a sell signal targeting 2870/2868, and even 2869/56 is not out of the question.
- A break above 2932 may retest the all-time high at 2951/56.
Silver
- Silver (XAG/USD) outlook remains unclear in the longer term sideways channel.
- We could have support again at 3230/322,0, and in fact longs here worked perfectly on Thursday and Friday. — but longs need stops below 3200 again today.
Targets: 3240, 3260 again for Monday, and I hope this trade worked for you on Friday. - A break above 3275 can retest the February high at 3322/3340.
- Just be aware that a break below 3200 can target 3175
WTI Crude April Future
Last session low and high: 6612 — 6822.
- WTI Crude on Friday, we had a sell opportunity at 6740/60 but shorts needed stops above 6800.
Unfortunately, we momentarily shot higher to 6822 before the expected decline. - However, I would try this trade again on Monday, with stop above 6810.
Targets: - A break higher can target 6820/30 then strong resistance at 6885/6905 and shorts need stops above 6940.
Targets: 6835 and 6775 - Support again at 6530/20. A break below 6500 is a sell signal targeting 6445/35 and 6395/75.
